Economics

Money originates in one of two ways. One way is by depositing gold, the value of which is credited to the depositor on a bank account. However, the bulk of the nation's "purchasing power" stems from credit extended by banks,! be it by loaning funds or by purchasing securities (bonds).

Galloping and creeping inflation

In the summer of 1923, the German inflation was rapidly heading toward the grand finale: total repudiation of the currency. As an instructor in a Berlin college, this writer drew a monthly salary that had been raised from an inflated 10,000 marks or so in early 1922 to 10,000,000 marks by July, 1923, and the whole amount was being paid twice a month; then, once every week; then once each day.

Since the end of World War II, the United States has experienced almost continuous inflation— the general rise in the price of goods and services. It would be difficult to find a similar period in American history before that war. Indeed, prior to World War II, the United States often experienced long periods of deflation. It is worth noting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 1941 was virtually at the same level as in 1807.

Figure 1 depicts Model I. Here, we imagine an economy that produces only consumption goods. To keep Model I as simple as possible we further suppose that the only consumption good is cars. These cars are produced by firms which are staffed by the households and owned by the households.

From using the forecasting method above it should have been possible to predict that the economy would stagnate, and with high likelihood enter a recession, about 1,5 years before the dated recession. Also I argued that forecasters using this method should have been able to predict that the future recession would with high likelihood be of great magnitude at least 6 months before December 2007.