Economics
After the introduction to economic indicators in section : macroeconomic forecasting through economic indicators, this section will look at the possibilities of predicting the recession starting in December 2007 using these indicators. Again it is important to remember that as this paper is written ex. post with revised data and a broad understanding of what went wrong1, it could easily be pointed at numerous of relatively detailed and complicated indications that something was fundamentally wrong with the US economy ahead of the recession.
Modern complex economies involve the interactions of large numbers of people and organizations. These economic agents fall into one of three categories: business, households, government, and the rest-of-the-world. Economists find it useful to think of these groupings as sectors of the economy. Let's look at each of these sectors in turn:
Economics is the study of the market economy. The market economy refers to an abstract image of interaction among purposeful, "normal human beings," or actors, under a given set of conditions. The set of conditions are four:
- a system of private property rights,
- specialization,
- the use of money
- free enterprise.
Imagine that you are the president of Blue Skies Airlines, Inc. and you have decided that Blue Skies should buy a new Boeing 777. The plane will cost $125 million and change. There is one small problem though. Blue Skies only has a few million dollars in its bank account, and those funds are needed to pay fuel bills and the salaries of its employees.
When you mention the word "investment" most people think of Wall Street and the stock market, not capital investment in new plant and equipment by firms. These are two distinct uses of the same word. When someone buys 100 shares of Nike Corporation they are making a financial investment. When Nike Corp. builds a new factory or warehouse, it is making a capital investment.